Physical gold · market sentiment
MetalsAlpha Composite
Nine factors. Fixed annual weights. Refreshed automatically every six hours.
The composite captures the macro, positioning, and technical backdrop for the physical gold market in a single 0–10 reading. It is a descriptive sentiment tool — it describes current conditions, it does not tell you to buy or sell. How we built it.
MetalsAlpha Composite
Nine factors. Fixed weights. Refreshed every six hours.
Factor breakdown
0 of 0 factors available| Factor | Weight | Reading | Score | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite weights are fixed annually. Per-factor methodology and source notes: methodology page.
What each factor means
Read on a 0–10 scale: 0 = maximum headwind, 5 = neutral, 10 = maximum support- Real yields (10y TIPS)· 18%
- Real return on US Treasuries. Gold competes with this — lower real yields = more supportive backdrop for a non-yielding asset.
- Central-bank reserve flows· 15%
- Sovereign accumulation pressure, proxied via 90-day gold momentum in CNY and INR — captures PBOC and RBI buying without waiting for quarterly WGC data.
- US fiscal trajectory· 12%
- Year-on-year change in US debt-to-GDP. A deteriorating fiscal position is the long-run case for monetary debasement hedges.
- Inflation breakevens· 12%
- Market-implied 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectations. Above the Fed's 2% target is supportive for inflation hedges.
- DXY trend· 10%
- US dollar index 90-day direction. Gold is priced in dollars, so a weakening dollar is mechanically supportive.
- Speculative positioning· 10%
- Managed-money net longs in COMEX gold futures (weekly CFTC data). Tracks institutional speculator conviction.
- Geopolitical stress· 8%
- Active risk-premium intensity, proxied via VIX percentile + crude oil 30-day move — the two markets where geopolitical shocks land first.
- Gold premium vs. baseline· 8%
- How far gold sits above or below its 200-day baseline. Compressed near baseline = supportive; very stretched = headwind to further upside.
- Industrial silver demand· 7%
- Industrial draw on silver (solar, EVs, electronics), proxied via the silver/gold ratio + US industrial production.
Full methodology, data sources, and disclosed proxies on the methodology page.
Descriptive market-sentiment indicator for the physical gold market. Not investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a buy/sell signal. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.