Gold Nears $5,000 - But Pakistan's Reko Diq Bet Is Decades Out

Gold Nears $5,000 - But Pakistan’s Reko Diq Bet Is Decades Out

With gold flirting with $5,000/oz, Pakistan’s push to unlock its vast gold-copper reserves at Reko Diq faces a familiar paradox: sky-high prices but glacial institutional progress.

What to know

• Gold is trading at $4,990/oz, up 4.84% over the past month, intensifying the economic case for greenfield mining projects like Reko Diq.

• Barrick Gold’s Reko Diq project in Balochistan holds one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold-copper deposits, but regulatory and institutional hurdles continue to delay meaningful output.

• Pakistan’s broader mining sector remains hamstrung by permitting complexity, security concerns, and limited institutional capacity despite hosting significant critical mineral reserves.

What happened

Gold is trading at $4,990.20/oz, up nearly 5% in the past month, while Pakistan’s mining sector generates renewed attention from industry leaders and policymakers. The focus is Reko Diq, a gold-copper deposit in Balochistan that ranks among the world’s largest undeveloped porphyry systems. Copper remains elevated on sustained demand from energy transition infrastructure.

The gap between geological potential and actual production in Pakistan remains enormous. The country sits on an estimated $6 trillion in untapped mineral resources, but mining contributes less than 3% of GDP. Institutional bottlenecks - from permitting delays to regulatory fragmentation across provincial and federal jurisdictions - continue to stall progress on flagship projects.

Who’s involved

Barrick Gold holds a 50% stake in Reko Diq alongside Pakistani state entities. The deposit contains roughly 12.3 million ounces of gold and 25.6 billion pounds of copper in measured and indicated resources. Pakistan’s federal and Balochistan provincial authorities have been working to streamline the regulatory environment, but progress has been incremental. The military’s role in securing mining corridors in Balochistan adds another layer of complexity. China’s growing interest in Pakistani critical minerals - partly through the CPEC framework - introduces geopolitical dimensions that could either accelerate or complicate Western-led projects.

Why it matters

At current gold prices, the in-ground value of Reko Diq’s gold alone exceeds $60 billion. But first production isn’t expected before the late 2020s at the earliest, with full ramp-up potentially stretching into the mid-2030s. Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi took over a decade from agreement to meaningful underground production. Reko Diq faces similar timelines.

Gold has surged roughly 35% over the past year, yet the pipeline of major greenfield projects capable of delivering 500,000+ ounces annually remains thin. Reko Diq could eventually be one of those projects, but not soon. The copper dimension is equally significant. As electrification and grid buildouts accelerate globally, copper supply gaps are widening. Every year that Reko Diq’s 25+ billion pounds of copper stays underground is a year the deficit deepens.

What comes next

Barrick’s capital allocation updates will signal management’s real confidence in the project timeline. Pakistan’s regulatory reform progress, particularly around mining lease standardization and security guarantees for foreign operators in Balochistan, remains uncertain. Gold has traded between $4,400 and $5,586 in the past month - volatility that makes long-cycle mining investment decisions harder. Whether China’s strategic mineral appetite reshapes competitive dynamics around Pakistani mining assets faster than expected is unclear.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.